Death by BABIP

Is the end near for Manny Machado?

Where has the time gone? When someone mentions Manny Machado, I still think of the 19-year-old I first watched in Bowie and then helped the 2012 Orioles to a playoff run. Perhaps my favorite moment of early Machado was before he was called up. The GM Dan Duquette was in the broadcast booth talking with Jim Palmer and whoever else was announcing the game. Duquette talked about how big and strong Machado was, but also on how well he looked in the field. He mentioned, as if this was a novel concept, that he thought Machado would be able to stick at shortstop.

Jim Palmer’s reaction was priceless. He just deadpanned “Have you introduced him to Cal Ripken?”.

Machado has now been a Padre longer than he was an Oriole. In his 15th season, he’s still only 34 years old (Happy Birthday Manny!). He’s got 7 years left on his mega-contract, which has to be a bit of a concern considering that he’s been a replacement level player so far this year.

He had been about as consistent as can be. At the end of the year you were going to get a .270 average, 29 homers, 95 RBI, and good defense at the hot corner. This year he’s batting just .189.

With all the velocity in the game and fewer players lasting past their mid-30s anymore, you could understand that Manny is having trouble making contact off this new generation of flamethrowers. However, that is not what’s happening. He is striking out a bit more, a career-high 22.4 percent. That is not an extreme number though, many players are striking out a lot more than that. His power is still there too. Manny has 18 homers so far and will likely end up with his typical total of 27 to 35.

It’s his BABIP, only .189, which at this moment coincidently matches his overall batting average. His career figure is .295, and he was at .307 last year.

How rare is that, if he were to keep it up? It would be the lowest BABIP for any qualified hitter during the expansion era. Only 2 others since 1961 finished under .200.

In the year of the pitcher, 1968, Curt Blefary had a .198 BABIP. Curt was the 1965 Rookie of the Year and had been a decent player for the Orioles. He still hit 15 homers and walked as often as he struck out, just couldn’t get any hits to fall in that season. The Orioles gave up on him and traded him to the Astros, where he recovered to have a .274 BABIP. Orioles can’t complain about the trade though, one of the players they got back was Mike Cuellar.

In 2010 Aaron Hill had a .196 BABIP for the Blue Jays. He wasn’t old, just 28. He hit 26 homers and struck out only 85 times in 510 at bats. He was making contact and hitting the ball hard, just like Manny is still doing. The hits just didn’t fall in. His BABIP was up to .268 the following season, and .317 in 2012. His luck turned around.

For Manny, his ground ball percentage is in a normal range for him. His popup percentage is 10.2%, which is lower than his career rate. His line drive average is down to 13.8%, with 18 percent being a normal figure.

Looking at Statcast outs above average by batter, I was expecting to see Manny leading the league in base hits stolen by great defense. Not so. The defense has been 2 hits above average for him, an extreme result is Bo Bichette, who has lost 8 hits to strong defense.

Manny should bounce back, if not in the second half, then next year. He still controls the strike zone, still has power. The other hits will start falling in again.