Free Agent Preview: Cody Bellinger
After a season playing for the team for which his legendary father won 2 rings
Bellinger sure has packed the highs and lows into his 9-year career. He was the rookie of the year at age 21, the MVP at age 23, and a barely recognizable shell of himself at 25. His 2021-2022 lack of production can be attributed to shoulder injuries that he tried to play through. After an 81 OPS+ in a full season for 2022, the Dodgers gave up on him. They could have kept him around for one more year at around 20 million dollars through arbitration but chose not to. Normally that decision is an easy yes for a 27-year-old former MVP.
Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a deal where he had to prove himself again. He succeeded, at least on the surface. In 130 games he hit 307/356/525 with 20 stolen bases and his usual good defense. Under the surface there were some questions. Bellinger’s batting line very lucky, much better than his batted ball metrics would suggest. A free agent again, he resigned with the Cubs on a deal that gave him player options to protect his downside.
In 2024 his luck ran out. While the batted ball metrics didn’t change all that much, his line dropped to 266/325/426. He exercised his player option while judging that his free agent value had declined. The Cubs didn’t have any confidence in him, trading him to the Yankees for a 30-year-old relief pitcher in a deal that can only be described as a salary dump. The player they got, Cody Poteet, didn’t even make the Cubs. He was sold to the Orioles at the end of spring training and lasted all of one game with them.
Bellinger came through with a very good season for the Yankees, setting himself up for a very good payday once the season is over. He settled in at a 125 OPS+, exactly halfway between his excellent 2023 and his disappointing 2024. He remains a good baserunner and defender.
He hits the free agent market at age 30 and has settled in as a solid, above average player who can help you all around. He played in 152 games this year, putting the injury issues with the Dodgers firmly in the rear view mirror. He can pick up his player option and stay with the Yankees for 25 million, but I don’t think he’ll do that this time around. Bellinger has gone more certainty to his game than he did 2-3 years ago, and this is probably his last chance to claim long term security.
Prediction: a 5-year deal for 122 million.